It has caught your attention.
For years, President Tayyip Erdoğan has been trying to maintain a good relationship with the United States and has thus used a measured tone. However, in the past two days, he has started to make aggressive statements.
First, on Monday after a cabinet meeting, he directly threatened the United States. I use the term ‘threat’ because reminding the U.S. of the downed Turkish drone and saying, “The necessary action will be taken when the time comes,” is equivalent to saying, “We will seek revenge.”
Although Erdoğan has used similar words in the past and then seemed to forget them, we have seen this before. For example, the former U.S. President, Donald Trump, wrote a letter to Erdoğan saying, “Don’t be a fool.” He also tweeted a threat to “destroy your economy.” Erdoğan, who normally wouldn’t tolerate such words, accepted them without making a fuss.
A similar situation occurred with Russia. In February 2022, Russia bombed at least 34 Turkish soldiers near Idlib. Erdoğan said, “The necessary action will be taken when the time comes,” but he not only refrained from seeking accountability but also faced insults. Putin publicly kept Erdoğan waiting at the door and broadcast this humiliation on Russian state television.
There are more examples.
A SERIOUS ACCUSATION
Erdoğan expressed his second reaction toward the United States during a joint press conference with Austrian Prime Minister Nehammer. In his speech, Erdoğan first drew attention to the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza and suddenly asked, “What is the American aircraft carrier doing in Israel?” He then continued, “What is it coming to do? There are boats around it, what are they going to do? They will take significant steps by hitting all around Gaza.”
After these strong statements, Erdoğan continued to target the United States, this time in the context of Syria. He said:
“There are over 20 Syrian bases in Syria. What are these bases doing there? Shouldn’t we evaluate all of this? But the U.S. shoots down Turkey’s UAV. Turkey is a NATO partner of the U.S. What can we explain this with? When it suits them, they partner; when it suits them, they arm and train terrorist organizations and turn the Middle East into a bloodbath.”
Erdoğan, who typically uses a more restrained tone when it comes to the U.S., making direct statements targeting America and accusing them of planning “massacres” and “arming terrorist organizations” is noteworthy.
As of the time I am writing this article, there has been no response to Erdoğan’s accusations from the U.S. The time zone difference and the busy schedule of the Biden administration with Israel may have delayed a response, but you can be sure that this issue will be on the agenda during the first daily press conference.
So, what’s happening?
Erdoğan prefers to use a constructive tone when it comes to relations with the U.S. He usually leaves statements like “Hey, America” for his ministers or the media. It has been this way for years. Just last month, when Erdoğan traveled to New York for the UN General Assembly, he sent warm messages to the Biden administration both before his trip and during his stay in the U.S. However, the desired meeting, even a brief one, did not happen.
Despite everything, Erdoğan continued his constructive tone towards the U.S. until two days ago. His hope for an invitation from the White House, which he had been waiting for a long time, had an influence on this. But even when faced with Israel’s potentially war crimes in Gaza, Erdoğan used a constructive tone. It’s a surprising situation.
I don’t think these statements are a spontaneous reflection of Erdoğan’s thought process. Most likely, Erdoğan employed a familiar tactic of a “preemptive strike.”
In other words, when Erdoğan realizes that he has been caught red-handed or that a “troubling” situation concerning him is approaching, he becomes the initiating party in the dispute before the other side makes a move. Thus, when the real danger to him emerges, he starts saying, “These people are already my enemies; they are making these accusations because they are uncomfortable with my actions.”
There are numerous examples, with the most famous one being the Gülen Movement.
When Erdoğan realized that the corruption wheel turning around Iranian Reza Zarrab and Halkbank had come to the attention of the police, he suddenly brought up the “cram schools” agenda, even though no one knew about the operation yet.
When the infamous December 17, 2013 Government corruption was revealed in Turkey, he already had his defense ready: “They are conducting an operation against me because I am going to close the cram schools.”
With his massive propaganda teams, he skillfully played into this perception and managed to partly escape from a scandal that no other politician would have survived.
Fast forward to today:
The presence of U.S. bases in Syria is not a new development. Sending an aircraft carrier to the region is not unprecedented either. The unwavering support of the White House for Israel does not surprise anyone because it is an American policy.
So, there must be a specific reason for Erdoğan’s change in rhetoric in the last two days. Could it be because he sees an impending danger and is raising tensions accordingly?
I think this possibility should not be underestimated.
I don’t believe we will have to wait long to find out what the “impending danger” might be for Erdoğan.
